9:00 CHAIRS’INTRODUCTION The US growth gamble – From tax reform to 11:00 REFRESHMENTBREAK MAIN David Blair, MD, Acarate, Singapore interest rate rises to fiscal expansion to 11:40 CONFERENCEBREAKSINTOSTREAMS Robert Novaria,Partner, protectionism – US decisions shape business for SESSIONS Treasury Alliance Group,US the globe. In particular, the decision to ignore the (See pages10-17.) deficit and double public borrowing to $1 trillion 9:15 SELECTINGTHESIGNIFICANTFROMTHE (5% of GDP) in the next fiscal year on top of a // DAY 1 NOISE mature recovery is already prompting renewed 3:40 REFRESHMENTBREAK volatility. Whatnext–isinflation thenewenemy? 4:00 ADJOURNTOTHEEXHIBITIONFLOORFORA TUESDAY MAY15 It’s easy to focus on the minutiae of tax or Jonathan Ablett, Knowledge Expert, McKinsey SPECIAL CONVERSATION ON INNOVATION payments, but the economic big picture matters to Global Institute, US ANDFINTECH treasury. Geopolitical risk means uncertainty; GIGO (GARBAGE uneven and unpredictable growth means China? – With Xi Jinping likely to be in power for IN,GARBAGE OUT): uncertainty; and technological disruption upends yearstocome,andwithhisstatedaimto‘strivefor FINTECH UNRAVELLED: FORGET THE entire business sectors with a speed and the great success of socialism with Chinese THEORETICAL,FOCUSONTHEPRACTICAL GETTINGTREASURY profundity that matches the effects of wars or characteristics’ to take ‘centre stage in the world’ * INTELLIGENCE industrial revolutions. All of these factors impact it seems clear that China will be a more assertive FinTech iseverywhere. Or rather, small FX, interest rate, tax and regulatory risks. But how and competitive presence globally. But that does start-ups promisingtore-inventeveryfinancial RIGHT canyoupredicttheeffectsofthisonyourbusiness? that meandaytoday?Inwhichregionsandsectors processyoucanthinkofareeverywhere. How do you know which signals to read? This will China’s presencebemostkeenlyfelt? Leaving aside the fact that almost all of them session putsyou intheknowandwhereyoushould will fail, the revolution they promise, if maintain yourfocus. Mike Hartnett, Director, Global Risk Consulting, deliverable, poses significant risks to the Peter Ceretti,Analyst, Economics&CountryRisk,IHS,US stability of the financial services sector and The Economist IntelligenceUnit The beginning of a new age? – Plenty of younger beyond, atleast accordingtopeople likeBank of 10:00 MAKINGSENSEOFACHANGINGWORLD market participants have never seen a rate hike or England’s governor Mark Carney, and may significant inflation. But astheUSandEuropeturn require new regulation. One issue: FinTech’s Drowning in data? These are the key micro and QE into QT what happens next? How does this disruption of the business models of traditional macro drivers you need to understand for your policy interact with the wider problem of banks could increase liquidity risks for the business coveredbythemostrespectedexperts in stagnating wages and rising debt? What do rising broaderfinancial systemand“theopeningupof their respectivefields. global rates do to economic recoveries in emerging the customer interface and payment services markets like Brazil? And have central banks business, could, in time, signal the end of Global recovery at last? – The IMF has raised its mistimed theturnaround? universal banking as we know it.” But the global growth forecast to 3.9 percent in 2018 on Regulatoryoverload?–Here’swhatyouneedto promise of FinTech also means lower pricing, the back of robust global demand, the stimulation know. PSD2 and MiFID II, GDPR and other KYC/ better efficiency and even potentially more of UStaxcutsandreduceddeflationary pressures]. AML and data privacy rules represent a robustsecurity for thefinancefunction andyour But faltering productivity, climate events, slowing fundamental transformation of thefinancial banks. So, should you wait and see, or start global trade, uncertainties about the longer-term services landscape. Buttheinterplay of these new migrating now? effects of technology and ringing inequality are laws with different global jurisdictions promises Moderated by: Simon Taylor, Co-Founder, ringing alarm bells. What are the key variables for confusion. What can business do to anticipate Director of Blockchain, 11:FS,UK business? change and benefit fromit? Chris Skinner, Chairman, Writer &FinTech Jonathan Ablett, Knowledge Expert, McKinsey HowwillyoubeaffectedbyUStaxreforms? Commentator, The Financial ServicesClub Global Institute, US – So complex are the effects of the revisions to the * Refreshments will be served during thissession Is Europe breaking up? – Brexit negotiations UStaxcodethatcompaniesarestillevaluating the proceed at a crawl; Hungary and Poland possible effects. However, it seems clear that they 5:00 ADJOURNTONETWORKINGRECEPTION increasingly pursue policies incompatible with EU will affect treasury in areas as diverse as cash membership; Catalonia votes for independence pooling, capital allocation and corporate finance prompting Spanish charges of sedition and andtreasury andsubsidiary location. Whatarethe rebellion against elected politicians; in Austria the key conclusions sofar? far-right Sebastian Kurz is the chancellor. The list of upsets goes on. Can anyone predict the impact of Brexit? More generally, where is Europe headed andwhatdoesitmeanforbusinesses thatoperate there? Peter Ceretti,Analyst, The Economist IntelligenceUnit 6